Publications

Publications

2024
Bring digital twins back to Earth

Andrea Saltelli, Gerd Gigerenzer, Mike Hulme, Konstantinos K. Katsikopoulos, Lieke A. Melsen, Glen P. Peters, Roger Pielke Jr., Simon Robertson, Andy Stirling. Massimo Tavoni, Arnald Puy. WIREs Climate Change, e915.

2024
The water crisis by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water: a totalising narrative built on shaky numbers

Arnald Puy, Bruce Lankford. Water Alternatives 17(2), 369-390.

2024
Mathematical models: a state of exception

Andrea Saltelli, Arnald Puy, Monica di Fiore. International Review of Applied Economics.

2024
An annotated timeline of sensitivity analysis

Stefano Tarantola, Federico Ferretti, Samuele Lo Piano, Mariia Kozlova, Alessio Lachi, Rossana Rosati, Arnald Puy, Pamphile Roy, Giulia Vannucci, Marta Kuc-Czarnecka, Andrea Saltelli. Environmental Modelling & Software 174, 105977.

2024
Discrepancy measures for global sensitivity analysis

Arnald Puy, Pamphile T. Roy, Andrea Saltelli. Technometrics 66(3), 347-357.

2024
Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making

Samuele Lo Piano, Máté János Lórincz, Arnald Puy, Steve Pye, Andrea Saltelli, Stefán Thor Smith, Jeroen van der Sluijs. Risk Analysis 44, 1273-1284.

2023
What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification?

Andrea Saltelli, Arnald Puy. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications 10, 213.

2023
Mind the hubris: complexity can misfire

Arnald Puy, Andrea Saltelli. The Politics of Modelling. Numbers Between Science and Policy. Ed. by Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 51:68.

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2023
Mind the framings: match purpose and context

Andrea Saltelli, Monica Di Fiore, Marta Kuk, Samuele Lo Piano, Arnald Puy. The Politics of Modelling. Numbers Between Science and Policy. Ed. by Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 38–50.

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2023
Sensitivity Auditing

Andrea Saltelli, Samuele Lo Piano, Arnald Puy. Elgar Encyclopaedia of Ecological Economics. Ed. by Emilio Padilla Rosa and Jesús Ramos Martín. Edward Elgar Publishing.

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2023
Sensitivity Analysis

Andrea Saltelli, Samuele Lo Piano, Arnald Puy. Elgar Encyclopaedia of Ecological Economics. Ed. by Emilio Padilla Rosa and Jesús Ramos Martín. Edward Elgar Publishing.

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2023
Irrigation modelling needs better epistemology

Arnald Puy, Michela Massimi, Bruce Lankford. Andrea Saltelli. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 4, 427-428.

2023
Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new?

Andrea Saltelli, Marta Kuc-Czarnecka, Samuele Lo Piano, Máté János Lóriincz, Magdalena Olczyk, Arnald Puy, Erik Reinert, Stefán Thor Smith, Jeroen van der Sluijs. Environmental Science & Policy 142, 99-111.

2022
The challenge of quantification: an interdisciplinary reading

Monica Di Fiore, Marta Kuc Czarnecka, Samuele Lo Piano, Arnald Puy, Andrea Saltelli. Minerva 61, 53-70.

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2022
Unpacking the modelling process via sensitivity auditing

Samuele Lo Piano, Razi Sheikholeslami, Arnald Puy, Andrea Saltelli. Futures 144, 103041.

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2022
Models with higher effective dimensions tend to produce more uncertain estimates

Arnald Puy, Pierfrancesco Beneventano, Simon A. Levin, Samuele Lo Piano, Tommaso Portaluri, Andrea Saltelli. Science Advances 8(42), eabn9450.

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2022
The delusive accuracy of global irrigation water withdrawal estimates

Arnald Puy, Razi Sheikholeslami, Hoshin V. Gupta, Jim W. Hall, Bruce Lankford, Samuele Lo Piano, Jonas Meier, Florian Pappenberger, Amilcare Porporato, Giulia Vico, Andrea Saltelli. Nature Communications 13, 3183.

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2022
sensobol: an R package to compute variance-based sensitivity indices

Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, Simon A. Levin. Journal of Statistical Software 102(5).

2022
Improving the reliability of cohesion policy databases

Samuele Lo Piano, Emanuele Borgonovo, Arnald Puy, Andrea Saltelli, John Walsh, Daniele Vidoni. PLOS One 17(4), e0266823.

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2022
Large variations in global irrigation withdrawals caused by uncertain irrigation efficiencies

Arnald Puy, Bruce Lankford, Jonas Meier, Saskia van der Kooij, Andrea Saltelli. Environmental Research Letters 17, 044014.      

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2022
A comprehensive comparison of total-order estimators for global sensitivity analysis

Arnald Puy, William Becker, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli. International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification 12(2), 1-18.

2021
Irrigated areas drive irrigation water withdrawals

Arnald Puy, Emanuele Borgonovo, Samuele Lo Piano, Simon A. Levin, Andrea Saltelli. Nature Communications 12(1), 4525.

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2021
The future of sensitivity analysis: an essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support

Saman Razavi, Anthony Jakeman, Andrea Saltelli, Clémentine Prieur, Bertrand Iooss, Emanuele Borgonovo, Elmar Plischke, Samuele Lo Piano, Takuya Iwanaga, William Becker, Stefano Tarantola, Joseph H.A. Guillaume, John Jakeman, Hoshin Gupta, Nicola Melillo, Giovanni Rabitti, Vincent Chabridon, Qingyun Duan, Xifu Sun, Stefán Smith, Razi Sheikholeslami, Nasim Hosseini, Masoud Asadzadeh, Arnald Puy, Sergei Kucherenko, Holger R. Maier. Environmental Modelling & Software 137, 104954.

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2021
Is VARS more intuitive and efficient than Sobol' indices?

Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli. Environmental Modelling & Software 137, 104960.

2021
Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy

Samuele Lo Piano, Federico Ferretti, Arnald Puy, Daniel Albrecht, Andrea Saltelli. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 206, 107300.

2020
Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

Andrea Saltelli, Gabriele Bammer, Isabelle Bruno, Erica Charters, Monica Di Fiore, Emmanuel Didier, Wendy Nelson Espeland, John Kay, Samuele Lo Piano, Deborah Mayo, Roger Pielke Jr, Tommaso Portaluri, Theodore M. Porter, Arnald Puy, Ismael Rafols, Jerome R. Ravetz, Erik Reinert, Daniel Sarewitz, Philip B. Stark, Andrew Stirling, Jeroen van der Sluijs, Paolo Vineis. Nature 582(7813), 482-484.

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2020
A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index

Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli. Environmental Modelling & Software 127, 104679.

2020
Current models underestimate future irrigated areas

Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli. Geophysical Research Letters 47(8), e2020GL087360.

2020
Challenges and opportunities for historical irrigated agricultural systems in Mediterranean regions: technical, cultural, and environmental assets for sustainable rural development in Ricote (Murcia, Spain).

Andrea L. Balbo, José María García Aviles, Johannes Hunink, Francisco Alcón, J.E. Palenzuela-Cruz, J. Martínez, Arnald Puy, Joaquín Rodríguez López, Jürgen Scheffran. Climate Change, Security Risks and Violence Conflicts. Essays from Integrated Climate Research in Hamburg. Ed. by Michael Brzoska and Jürgen Scheffran. Hamburg: Hamburg University Press, 143–162.

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2018
Detection of sand encroachment patterns in desert oases. The case of Erg Chebbi (Morocco)

Arnald Puy, Manuel Herzog, Pedro Escriche, Amou Marouche, Yousef Oubana, Olaf Bubenzer. Science of the Total Environment 642, 241-249.

2018
Irrigated areas grow faster than the population

Arnald Puy. Ecological Applications 28(6), 1413-1419.

2018
Amplified environmental change: evidence from land-use and climate change in Medieval Minorca

Andrea Luca Balbo, Arnald Puy, Jaime Frigola, Fèlix Retamero, Isabel Cacho, Helena Kirchner. Land Degradation & Development 29(4), 1262-1269.

2017
Terrace landscapes. Editorial to the special issue

Andrea L. Balbo, Arnald Puy. Journal of Environmental Management 202(3), 495-499.

2017
Drip irrigation uptake in traditional irrigated fields: The edaphological impact

Arnald Puy, José María García Avilés, Andrea Luca Balbo, Michèle Keller, Svenja Riedesel, Daniel Blum, Olaf Bubenzer. Journal of Environmental Management 202, 550-561.

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2017
Size and stochasticity in irrigated social-ecological systems

Arnald Puy, Rachata Muneepeerakul, Andrea L. Balbo. Scientific Reports 7, 43943.

2016
High-resolution stratigraphy of Scandinavian coastal archaeological settlements: the case of Häkonshella, W Norway

Arnald Puy, Andrea Luca Balbo, Camila Zinsli, Morten Ramstad. Boreas 45(3), 508-520.

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2016
Resilience of small-scale societies: a view from drylands

Andrea L. Balbo, Erik Gómez-Baggethun, Matthieu Salpeteur, Arnald Puy, Stefano Biagetti, Jürgen Scheffran. Ecology and Society 21(2), art53.

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2016
Radiocarbon dating of agrarian terraces by means of buried soils

Arnald Puy, Andrea L. Balbo, Olaf Bubenzer. Radiocarbon 58(2), 345–363

2014
The evolution of Mediterranean wetlands in the first millennium AD: The case of Les Arenes floodplain (Tortosa, NE Spain)

Arnald Puy, Andrea Luca Balbo, Antoni Virgili, Helena Kirchner. Geoderma 232-234, 219:235.

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2014
Land selection for irrigation in al-Andalus (Spain, 8th century AD)

Arnald Puy. Journal of Field Archaeology 39(1), 84-100.

2013
The genesis of irrigated terraces in al-Andalus. A geoarchaeological perspective on intensive agriculture in semi-arid environments (Ricote, Murcia, Spain)

Arnald Puy and Andrea L. Balbo. Journal of Arid Environments 89, 45:56.

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2013
Tracking down the gliter of gold in the Diplomatari de Santes Creus

Arnald Puy. Imago Temporis 7, 175–224.

Sensitivity auditing: a practical checklist for auditing decision-relevant models

Samuele Lo Piano, Razi Sheikholeslami, Arnald Puy, Andrea Saltelli. The Politics of Modelling. Numbers Between Science and Policy. Ed. by Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 121–136.

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©Copyright Arnald Puy 2024
Birmingham, United Kingdom